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更新时间:2006/7/31
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Lebanon Election  (Part B)
黎巴嫩大选 (2)

At the core of the anti-Syrian coalition that's set to dominate the new parliament, is the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. Like his political partner Saad al-Hariri, he too is nursing a bitter grudge against the Syrians. In 1977, his father Kamal, who was a socialist and philosopher as well as the feudal leader of the Druze, fell out with Damascus. He died in a well-organised ambush in the Shouf mountains. Walid inherited his political mantle, but for many years -- including long periods of close alliance with Syria -- he kept quiet about who he believed killed his father. Now, he openly accuses Damascus.

The Syrian withdrawal and all its repercussions have of course brought about a sea-change in the Lebanese political climate, the new Lebanese parliament is expected to have an anti-Syrian majority, though Syrian influence will not be completely excluded.

But anyone who's expecting to see a sea of new FACES as a result of all this change, is going to be disappointed. It was yet another candidate son of a slain father -- Sulaiman Franjieh, whose father Tony was killed by a rival Maronite Christian militia in 1978 -- who put his finger on it. He said, Lebanon's the only country, where politics can turn 180 degrees, but the politicians stay the same.

The same political clans and party bosses who've been dominating the country's politics for decades, have ensured their survival by doing electoral deals with one another to reduce or even eliminate competition. They'll continue to predominate in the new parliament, as they did in the previous one, but under different colours. Rafiq al-Hariri himself, and Walid Jumblatt, and others, were all considered pro-Syrian at the time of the last election in the year 2000. Now times have changed, the mood has changed, but the players largely have not.

The only real note of friction and competition has been introduced by the maverick former general, Michel Aoun, who returned recently from 15 years in exile. He at least has consistently opposed the Syrians from start to finish. But he's been unable to blend in with the other factions in the former opposition, so he'll be battling with them at the polls in the same central mountains where in the late 80s he was battling with them with guns.

But otherwise, in most areas, these first Syria-free elections for over thirty years, have been a disappointing stitch-up. That's one reason why they've stirred so little genuine enthusiasm among many ordinary people here. They know the basic situation's changed with the Syrian withdrawal, but they can't see much actual difference. Maybe once the new parliament's in place and pushing for change -- not least amending a Syrian-engineered election law that moved constituency boundaries so that Christian deputies were being elected mainly by Muslims -- things will start to feel different. But the Lebanese are lumbered with a highly-sectarian political system which makes it hard for people to feel this is real democracy, that their voice is really being heard, that their votes can really make a difference. And there's little prospect at the moment, for any radical change to that.


参考译文:


这个反叙利亚联盟注定了要左右新的国会,而该联盟的核心就是德鲁士领导人瓦里德·钟布拉,同他的政治搭档萨阿德·哈里里一样,也是仇恨叙利亚的。他的父亲卡马勒是一个社会主义者,一个哲学家,同时也是一个德鲁士领导人。1977年,卡马勒同叙利亚反目,最终在舒弗山区的一次严密策划的埋伏中遇害。瓦里德继承了父亲的遗志,多年以来,包括同叙利亚紧密合作的几年中,一直没有明确说明在他心目中究竟谁才是杀害他父亲的真凶。现在,他开始公开指责叙利亚。

叙利亚的撤军以及相应的反响给黎巴嫩的政治气候带来了翻天覆地的变化。尽管新国会中还会存留一点叙利亚的影响,但是,预计国会中大部分人还是会反对叙利亚。

但是有人期望着这样的变化会给国会带来一些新的面孔,那么这些人会很失望。又出现了一个作为遇难者的儿子的候选人——苏来曼·弗朗吉亚。他指出,他的父亲托尼就是在1978年被竞争对手的基督教民兵杀害的,并且认为黎巴嫩是唯一一个其政治可以发生180度大转变的国家,但是它的政客们却能安如磐石。

有一些执掌了黎巴嫩政治几十年的政党以及他们的领袖能够保证他们胜出,因为他们这些政党和领袖通过一些竞选的手段来削弱了竞争,或者干脆排除了竞争。他们将像控制以前的国会一样,继续掌控着新的国会,只是手段或许有所不同。拉菲克·哈里里,瓦里德·钟布拉还有很多其他人,在2000年的上界大选中都曾经想要成为亲叙利亚派。现在时代变了,形势变了,可是这些政客们的本性没有变。

唯一给这次选举带来真正摩擦和竞争的,是流放了15年以后刚刚回国的前将军米歇尔·奥恩。至少他自始至终一直在反对叙利亚。但是现在,他已经不能同那些以前一同反对叙利亚的派系混在一起了。他要同那些80年代末中部山区的战场上的那些敌人在新的大选的战场上再度开战。

但是,在大多数地区,三十多年来唯一没有受到叙利亚影响的大选,其实也是很令人失望的。这就是为什么这次大选没有勾起人们太多热情的原因之一。他们知道,叙利亚的撤军改变了黎巴嫩的根本形势,但是人们没有看到实质性的区别。或许,如果新的国会安宁了,而且真正想要变革——而并非只是改变这种叙利亚控制大选的情况以使更多的穆斯林能够选基督教代表——才能让人感觉到真正发生了实质性的变化。但是黎巴嫩人民已经对高度的宗派主义政治系统麻木了,很难再相信有真正的民主,很难相信他们的意见会有人听从,很难相信他们的投票会真正起到一点作用。而现在并没有发生根本性变革的可能。

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